On the road to COP29 in Baku: What to expect other than more climate catastrophes?
On the road to COP29 in Baku: What to expect other than more climate catastrophes? - Habib Maalouf
The Conference of the Parties (COP 29) is being held amid raging wars on the one hand and catastrophic and unusual floods on the other, the latest being the floods that struck Europe, especially Spain. The same can be said about the conference held the years before.
These floods are undoubtedly a consequence of global warming, which increases the temperature of the Mediterranean Sea and leads to a rise in evaporation. The higher the atmosphere’s temperature is, the greater is its ability to retain humidity. This generates longer droughts, more fires, and more intense rainfall and flooding. In Spain, an entire year's worth of rain fell in less than half a day. And while it is true that similar events occurred in the past, they happened at intervals of several decades, and have now become more frequent and their destructive capacity greater.
Today, nobody can claim that they were not warned or that they did not expect it. The international reports of the 6 relevant governmental bodies that had been dealing with the climate change issue for more than a quarter of a century (one report being issued every five years) were clear. The world, its scientists, and its rulers are aware of this reality and have approved the first international agreement to combat climate change since 1992. Since then, the rise in global temperatures has reached new record heights and disasters and their severity increased every year! So far, 28 climate summits have been held, yet the gap between pledges and the rise in global temperatures continues to grow instead of closing.
Despite it all, what should we look for and what to expect from this year’s COP29?
The subject of financing is certainly both pivotal and problematic for this year’s negotiations... especially since financing the second phase post-2025 will be difficult and doomed to fail due to the breakdown of trust between developing and developed countries that failed to fulfill their promises to pump one hundred billion dollars annually starting in 2020. This is especially true since the losses and the cost of expected damage are three times greater than previous estimates.
Last year, the COP held in Dubai closed with a declaration to “transition away from fossil fuels”. While no one believed this vague pledge, COP 29 must, if it ever aimed to achieve some sort of progress, determine implementation mechanisms for this agreement by outlining specific procedures and deadlines. But the question remains: where will this be integrated? In mitigation programs? Or what we call “nationally determined contributions”? Countries that were considered “developed” had previously failed to respect their commitments, especially those related to the binding Kyoto Protocol of 1979. Consequently, what about the fate of non-binding contributions then?!
How will COP29 tackle losses and damage?
The conference in Baku is supposed to provide a propitious occasion to address this matter. This topic was almost the only victory achieved for developing countries during the past two summits. In Baku, the parties are supposed to review the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage, which has truly enhanced our general understanding of what constitutes loss and damage and the different ways in which they can manifest. Guidance will also be provided on the early operation of the “Santiago Network”, which aims to stimulate technical assistance on loss and damage. An overview on how to establish and operate the new Loss and Damage Fund will be given as well. The conference is also supposed to discuss the first report of the fund, assess the progress that was made, and establish eligibility requirements and criteria determining who should pay, how to direct the funds and to whom. The priority is to make sure that the Loss and Damage Fund does not become a project-based fund where access to financing takes a long time...while the nature of disasters requires providing rapid support to countries affected by loss and damage.
In addition, the list of items on the agenda that must be addressed is rather expansive. Some have high hopes for Article 6 regarding the development of carbon markets, even though negotiations on this issue have been ongoing for a long time to no avail.
Parties will also hold discussions on the global adaptation goal, building on the work of experts who started developing indicators to measure progress on this front. Several other issues related to agriculture and gender will also be discussed. New headlines about what is now dubbed the “just transition” are also emerging, as it has become the newest most attractive term for marketing renewable energy technology; developing countries still have not succeeded in making it one of their rights, which could also constitute a form of compensation owed by rich industrialized countries in order to achieve climate justice.
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